Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, July 9, 2008 at 6:52AM

Busy Afternoon

A front is approaching our area today. That combined with humid conditions should result in lots of showers and thundershowers especially this afternoon and overnight. A few of these could become quite strong. Exactly how far that front pushes into the Southeast will determine our weather for Thursday and Friday--there's considerable disagreement on that point. We'll follow a "middle of the road" approach calling for scattered thundershowers Thursday (less than today) and only isolated thunder Friday.

The MusicFest 'n Sugar Grove is this weekend. Doc Watson, The Kruger Brothers, the Carolina Chocolate Drops, and Cadillac Sky along with many more groups will make for a great weekend of music in the High Country. Check here for our hourly Festival Forecast.

The 2009 Ray's Weather Calendar Photo Contest is underway. It will run through July 31 with winners to be chosen by the middle of August. "Hit me with your best shot!" See our photo contest page for details and "fire away".

Wednesday Hi: 83 Lo: 66 Mostly cloudy; Good chance of afternoon & overnight t-showers; West wind 5-15 mph becoming NW 5-10 mph at night

Thursday Hi: 81 Lo: 60 Mostly to partly cloudy; Scattered t-showers possible; Light NE wind

Friday Hi: 82 Lo: 61 Partly cloudy; An isolated afternoon t-shower possible; NW wind 5-10 mph becoming calm at night

Saturday Hi: 82 Lo: 63 Lots of clouds; Scattered PM t-showers

Sunday Hi: 83 Lo: 65 Partly to mostly cloudy; You guessed it... Scattered PM t-showers

Further Out

Monday - Partly cloudy; Isolated PM t-showers possible; High in the lower 80s; Low near 60 degrees
Tuesday - Partly cloudy; Pleasant temps for mid-July; High in the lower 80s; Low near 60 degrees

Forecast Discussion

The weather in our area during the next week will be controlled by the details of two fronts. The first will move across our area late tonight or early Thursday. It will stall Friday to our south and east and wash out there. A second front will pass through the region late Sunday or Monday, then stall and wash out in a similar fashion to our south and east. Computer models differ significantly on the details; that in turn, controls the coverage of thundershowers on any given day. A trough will develop in the Eastern US Sunday through Tuesday resulting in gradually drier air overtaking the region Monday and Tuesday with pleasant temperatures.

Humid air across the Southeast should provide a productive environment of thundershowers this afternoon and overnight as daytime heating and the approaching front provide triggers. Some of these storms could become quite strong.

Thursday and Friday, the front will slide to the south and east allowing drier air to filter in. With the front so close, it's wise to keep the chance of thundershowers in the forecast. However, drier air Friday should limit thundershower coverage to isolated at most.

Saturday and Sunday, the next front will approach. We'll see a tick up in afternoon thundershower coverage Saturday (isolated to scattered). Sunday looks to have a better chance of afternoon thunder than Saturday.

By Monday, a drier NW flow will develop as a result of the trough digging into the East. Afternoon thundershower chances will decrease with the humidity.

"Changes in latitudes" haven't been kind to Bertha. It is now a minimal hurricane almost 800 miles SE of Bermuda with sustained winds of 75 mph. It will continue to gradually weaken as it travels NW and eventually north. Bertha will be east of Bermuda by Sunday. Even though it will amount to nothing more than a fish storm, it will go into the books of the strongest storm on record to form this far to the south and east.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap has just been added; Waynesville, you're next. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.